You're probably wondering: How high is the probability of Blackjack at win? The probability of winning at blackjack depends on how you play.
If you do it with the right Black Jack Strategy plays and Cards you have an advantage as a player and the probability of winning increases. If you go purely on instinct or make mistakes with your strategy, the probability of winning at blackjack decreases dramatically. Then blackjack is really just a game of chance with similarly bad odds. Odds as in the slot machine game.
PROBABILITY OF WINNING AT GAMBLING IN GENERAL
Every game for money has special rules that ensure that the provider has an advantage over the player.
To illustrate this, I will first explain the probabilities of winning using the simple example of Roulettebecause there are no options that influence the odds ratio or differences between the players' skills.
In roulette, this is the 0 as the 37th number, which is offset by a win of 36 times.
This means that the Probability of winning at roulette approximately 48.64%if you have bet on red or black. There are 18 red and 18 black numbers. This means you win 18 times and lose 19 times. So out of 100 games, you win one euro 48.64 times and lose one euro 51.36 times. Not so bad, right?
A basketball team that wins 48.64% of its games would currently be seventh out of 15 teams in the NBA Eastern Conference. So not even on course for the play-offs. Unfortunately, that's not enough at the casino.
Because a win probability of 48.6% results in a average loss of 2.72 euros per 100 euros Insert. These 2,72% are the House edge of the casino. No matter how a single spin turns out. In the long run, the casino will make a lot of profit.
You cannot circumvent this house advantage of the casino by any strategy in the world. So short term wins are pure chance.
With luck, you may even win more often and perhaps bet a lot and then win more. Or you could be on a winning streak and win many times in a row or for several days, weeks and months. It's not unlikely, but simply luck or bad luck.
In mathematics, luck and bad luck are referred to as variance. However, very few people are always lucky or unlucky.
There are deviations from this average, both positive and negative, but the longer you play, the closer your loss will be to exactly 2.72%.
PROBABILITY OF WINNING AT BLACKJACK
Compared to roulette, as a player you have control over how likely you are to win at blackjack!
The probability of winning at blackjack depends on the following factors:
- Gameplay (Strategy)
- Casino rules
- Card counting and bet variation
INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING WITH THE BLACKJACK STRATEGY
Fortunately, mathematicians discovered back in the 1960s that it is possible to increase the chances of winning at blackjack by using simple probability calculations. This gave rise to the Basic Strategy. This best possible blackjack strategy is presented in a simple table. As a player, you can see at a glance what you can do best in every situation. Blackjack table to keep the casino's house edge as low as possible and thus increase your own chances of winning.
If you as a player adhere to the guidelines of the Blackjack tableyou can reduce the house edge of the casino to approx. 0.5%. This means that you only lose 50 cents for every 100 euros you bet. In comparison: In roulette, we lose 2.72 euros per 100 euros. So five times as much! Who wouldn't prefer Play blackjack?
Where do we play blackjack online?
We have had the best experiences at Black Jack in the Playamo Live Casino made. In my opinion, that's where it's at, BEST SELECTION at tables with live dealers and you can train very well for the real casino! Compared to other online casinos, the winnings at Playamo are really paid out and that's why I would definitely recommend Playamo Online Casino!
The Playamo Casino has many live tables for blackjack and a Fast payout of winnings.
The probability of winning at blackjack is five times higher than at roulette!
However, very few players play absolutely correctly according to the blackjack strategy decisions. This is due to the following reasons:
- UNKNOWLEDGMENT: People don't even know that you can increase the probability of winning.
- COMPLEXITY: It is difficult to memorize all the decisions and apply them under pressure in the casino.
- STUPIDITY: Many believe that it is useless because they still lose 51,36% all hands and do not automatically win every hand.
So the minority of all blackjack players manage to stick exactly to the blackjack strategy and thus increase the probability of winning to about 49.5%.
Everyone else who doesn't make their decisions based on the blackjack table only wins about 45% of all rounds and consequently loses a lot more.
If you play blackjack according to your gut feeling and bet one euro 45 times, you win 45 euros in 100 hands. In the remaining 55 hands, you lose 55 euros.
The bottom line is a loss of 45 - 55 = -10 euros, which corresponds to a loss of 10%.
As a pure gambler, you have a higher probability of winning at roulette and even at some slot machines than at blackjack.
However, if you make the effort and want to play blackjack correctly, practice the decisions on the blackjack table until you can execute them correctly without thinking.
INFLUENCE OF THE RULES ON THE PROBABILITY OF PROFIT
What beginners don't know:
The blackjack rules may differ depending on the casino.
The game rules offered can even vary from one table to another within a casino. This is completely normal in Vegas. There are the "tourist traps" and the professional tables with higher stakes.
If you want to play blackjack with little money, you get bad rules, because otherwise it is not worthwhile for the expensive casinos on the Las Vegas Strip to offer such a cheap table at all.
From a stake of 25 US dollars per round, you can also get reasonably good blackjack rules on the Las Vegas Strip. Away from the Strip or in other locations, casinos also offer good blackjack rules for less. In the so-called "locals' casinos", the minimum bet is usually 5 dollars.
In other countries such as the Czech Republic or on some Caribbean islands, you can also find very good Blackjack rules.
With the best possible rules, the casino's house edge is even less than the 0.5%, which makes a very big financial difference for blackjack pros and anyone who plays many hours of blackjack.
What are good blackjack rules?
You can find the good blackjack rules on the corresponding rules page. Here I'll give you a brief overview of the rules that have a big influence on how likely you are to win at blackjack.
- Blackjack Playout 3:2 (never 6:5)
- The dealer stops at a soft17 instead of drawing
- Double allowed with any hand (also with the Soft Hands with Assen)
- Double after the Share allowed
- Split up to four hands - even with aces
- Surrender is allowed
While you only learn most of the rules during the course of the game, you can see the payout ratio for blackjack printed directly on the table or on a sign next to the dealer. If you don't know what the payout ratio is, simply ask the dealer. You should NEVER play here if the payout ratio is only 6:5. This increases the house edge of the casino to more than 2%, even with an optimal blackjack strategy. This means that it makes more sense to play roulette.
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF WINNING WITH CARD COUNTING
If you can count cards, you can recognize when you have an advantage in blackjack. In these situations with an increased probability of winning, blackjack pros bet more money. In this way, they compensate for the disadvantage.
Put simply, if you know when the probability of winning is higher, you can bet more and win more in the long term.
Example:
A card counter also only has a 501TP3 chance of winning. However, he knows his chances exactly because he counts cards. As the probability of winning changes with each card, the card counter knows when it has a better chance of winning.
Suppose the card counter bets 2 euros in 50% of the cases and wins. Then he has bet 2 euros 50 times and won 100 euros.
In the remaining 50 cases, he only bet 1 euro and therefore lost 50 euros. He is left with a profit of 50 euros.
This example is greatly exaggerated and is intended to explain the principle simply.
By counting cards, players can achieve an advantage of 1-2%.
So for every 100 euros you bet, you win 1 euro.
The only thing that matters now is that you play as many hands as possible with the highest possible stakes.
Comparison of profits
We're looking at three blackjack players:
- Hobby gambler with a chance to win 45%
- Strategy player with a chance of winning 49.5%
- Blackjack pro with a chance of winning 51%.
The differences don't look big. And you will need a few minutes or even hours at a blackjack table to be able to tell who is a professional and who is an amateur based on their playing style and winnings.
Over the course of a year, the hobby gambler, the strategy player and the card counter always bet 10 euros per hand.
In one hour, approx. 100 hands are played, i.e. 1,000 euros are bet. (Realistically 20 - 50 are more likely, but for the sake of simpler calculations we'll take 100).
They both play 1000 hours of blackjack a year, which gives them a Total stake of 1 million euros!
The hobby gambler has won 450,000 euros with his disadvantage and lost 550,000 euros. The bottom line is that he lost a whole 100,000 euros!
The strategy player wins 495,000 euros and loses 505,000 euros. A loss of 5,000 euros.
The blackjack pro makes a total profit of 20,000 euros with 510,000 euros profit and 490,000 euros loss.
So get started and learn the blackjack rules, strategy and card counting.
Then hopefully you can answer the question positively: What is the probability of winning at blackjack?
